135890459020589's home timeline
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it's like... almost exactly identical, actually. Don't fix what ain't broke, you know? http://rainbowdash.net/url/875217
Thursday, 26-Sep-19 04:22:26 UTC from web -
The point of this gag was supposed to be so that I can make topical jokes in cartoons that can’t be topical because they take a few months each to make. All that’s really done is make me go back and change it every few days until release. http://rainbowdash.net/url/875216
Wednesday, 25-Sep-19 20:38:52 UTC from web-
@mrmattimation I have to imagine this one is gonna stay in the news for a while so I think this is the final-final one
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I thought maybe if I went to sleep and trump released the Ukraine transcript while I was asleep the whole “impeachment” thing would just silently go away because if he’s offering to release it that means there’s nothing incriminating... right? He can’t be that dumb, right? Anyway I woke up and read the news and now i’m even grumpier.
Wednesday, 25-Sep-19 16:04:10 UTC from web-
@mrmattimation Never get online before breakfast. That said, I am overdue for a burrito....
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...and the 80s lasted until, like, 93
Wednesday, 25-Sep-19 05:45:30 UTC from web -
hot take: officially, the decade ends this year, but culturally, the 90s ended in 2001 or 2002 and the 2000s ended in 2008, so like, who REALLY decides when the decade ends?
Wednesday, 25-Sep-19 05:44:35 UTC from web -
At least I finally get to live my dream of being able to parody a Presidential impeachment nine months after the fact because that’s how long animation takes. I’m joining The Simpsons in that feat.
Wednesday, 25-Sep-19 01:52:02 UTC from web -
Every twenty years, like clockwork, stg
Wednesday, 25-Sep-19 00:18:27 UTC from web -
The President is getting impeached and I am MAD about it
Tuesday, 24-Sep-19 22:17:00 UTC from web -
Maybe I will build a recording booth inside an old trailer, and go on the road hunting narrating gigs via Denny's wifi, then working deep in the Hundred Acre Woods on solar panels.
Tuesday, 24-Sep-19 02:11:33 UTC from web- awlxaĺan likes this.
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@scribus I often think about saving up to buy a house in Colorado and just building a small office space in the backyard so I can have an actual professional base of operations but also I don’t have to pay rent on professional space
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@mrmattimation I have similar thoughts, except it's a compound in Nevada or New Mexico.
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i sincerely apologize to anyone who had to talk to me when I was 15, this is just terrible
Tuesday, 24-Sep-19 01:06:49 UTC from web-
@mrmattimation Yes it is. I am left thinking about http://rainbowdash.net/url/875214
Jonathan Chouinard likes this.
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goodness me
Tuesday, 24-Sep-19 01:04:16 UTC from web -
Also tbh if you somehow got “Trump is an illegitimate president and Clinton should never have conceded” from a purely numbers-based analysis of what polling looks like right now and how, Actually, they weren’t even wrong last time, then you probably have the total brain development of a baby anyway.
Monday, 23-Sep-19 23:44:55 UTC from web-
@drinkingpony you insisted I said both of those things when I said neither, please learn to read above a kindergarten level
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@mrmattimation Alright, I will bite. I insisted you said what things ?
Jonathan Chouinard likes this. -
@mrmattimation Hold on a minute. Do you believe that I said that you must think that HRC should have never conceded. But where I actually said that HRC did not have her concession speech ready when Trump won because all the polls told her that her win was pretty much a done deal and actual voting would actually just be a formality at that point.
Because if that is the sore spot then I find it extremely hilarious that you think I need to learn how to read.Jonathan Chouinard likes this.
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Oh my. I guess we DID agree on something. Ahwell. Show is over. I do not feel like I have to say to someone who thinks that the 2016 polls were right next to a big hotchpotch of other stuff (*) because it would not register at all. In fact I do not think I could say anything to someone suffering so severely from ( my best guess ) TDS and have, in any way, a worthwile conversation. To make matters worse, the [reply] button is not even used, making it more like a war of passive agressive post it notes by someone who has two mom's ( Believe me, I know ) which is infuriating by itself.
(*) : Just look at the phletora of topics discarded and left unanswered, not to mention that I am kinda forced to assume some things I do not want to assume. Such as is this person in favour of HRC never having written a consession speech ?
TL;DR : Show is over, I will not be playing the politics game anymore, at least for a while, most certainly not with a certain personMonday, 23-Sep-19 18:04:09 UTC from web- Jonathan Chouinard likes this.
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@drinkingpony my goodness you're a baby
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@mrmattimation When you are having a conversation in the open like this, calling your perceived opponent a name or derogatory like that is probably going to end up great for the total tally for those at home keeping score.
Not that I care all that much about being called anything but surely even you have to admit that it does not look good. Heck, any highschooler that has even heard of a debate team knows this. Not that I would know, according to you it would take at least 10 years before I probably even get close to a highschool.Jonathan Chouinard likes this. -
@drinkingpony you're even being a huge baby about me calling you a big baby, man up you big baby
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Trump, I will say, is better than any other Republican before him at energizing his base, but to focus only on his base - which is his public gameplan - would be a fatal mistake, and it’s, again, the same mistake Clinton made. It’s really weird how many Clinton-esque mistakes Trump is making right now.
Monday, 23-Sep-19 17:23:23 UTC from web-
@mrmattimation Never interrupt your enemy while they're making a mistake.
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@scribus I think he’s technically my boss, I DID get paid from ads his campaign ran on my YouTube channel a few years back
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@mrmattimation Believe me, one's boss and one's enemy can easily be the same.
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And the 2016 polls weren’t “wrong” either, as I just explained. All results fell within the margin of error except MAYBE Iowa. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, the results were not as expected by the general public but if you paid attention to the actual polls you could have easily expected the outcome we got. Trump isn’t some magic fifth-dimensional wizard who defies all political science and the suggest otherwise would be making the exact same mistake Clinton made in 2016.
Monday, 23-Sep-19 17:05:31 UTC from web -
(And in the 2017 off-year elections)
Monday, 23-Sep-19 17:02:00 UTC from web -
For what this is worth to somebody who only accepts numbers that confirm his biases, polling was pretty much dead-on in 2018.
Monday, 23-Sep-19 17:01:22 UTC from web-
@mrmattimation Wait, so we agree on something ?
Jonathan Chouinard likes this.
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Don’t explain statistics to a Potato Knishesing moron, everyone, he’ll just ignore it.
Monday, 23-Sep-19 16:59:27 UTC from web -
really i just want Trump gone so that I don't feel tempted to ruin Swole Foods by doing a Trump show that everyone hates because it says mean things about the meme president.
Monday, 23-Sep-19 04:25:06 UTC from web -
i also don't wear very thick glasses anymore, those are sitting in a drawer somewhere, i wear very thick contact lenses
Monday, 23-Sep-19 04:21:18 UTC from web -
And, of course, candidates matter. So once the Democrats have found themselves a nominee, it's possible - likely, even - that all of this data will become completely irrelevant before next November.
Monday, 23-Sep-19 04:13:15 UTC from web -
There are so many other things I could go into on the subject because I'm a kiwiing nerd who wears very thick glasses and looks at numbers all day but like, whatever
Monday, 23-Sep-19 04:08:14 UTC from web -
tl;dr facts don't care about your feelings libtards
Monday, 23-Sep-19 04:02:36 UTC from web -
Unsurprisingly, the map I just posted, which was calculated based on the 538 PVI and the 538 Congressional Generic Ballot, also correlates with Trump's net approval in each of those states. In a vacuum these things mean absolutely nothing, but adding them to a pile and analysing and cross-referencing them tells you a lot. http://rainbowdash.net/url/875209
Monday, 23-Sep-19 04:01:42 UTC from web-
@mrmattimation Yes and there are still 10 people running for democratic presidential candidate, and last time I checked the Republicans are going to run with the current president. Meaning there is one flavour of red and various flavours of blue. Of course one side is going to be a lot more outspoken about thier choice. Same thing happened in, lets see, 2012, 2004, 1996, 1984, for some reason in 1980 that was not a 2nd term runnin prez, 1972, and 1956.
As for those two maps, Well we already know the bias of "270 to win"Jonathan Chouinard likes this.
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That probably doesn't happen today. Elections today are very partisan and correlated and boring and if a Presidential candidate wins in a given state then other people from his party on the same ballot also win statewide - that hasn't quite begun to happen with individual congressional districts though, Clinton won a great deal of congressional districts that ultimately voted for Republican congressmen (though most of those people lost their re-election bids in 2018).
Monday, 23-Sep-19 03:57:08 UTC from web -
In the case of 2008, Obama actually underperformed the incredibly lofty 9 point advantage the generic ballot gave the party, but the party as a whole did incredibly well and won districts and states that Obama himself could not win due to ballot splitting.
Monday, 23-Sep-19 03:54:42 UTC from web -
Pretty much no causation and only correlation, but errors in the generic ballot tend to result in higher swings towards Democrats, rather than the opposite. That's just a trend I've noticed that doesn't actually point to anything greater, except maybe that Democrats respond to congressional polls less often than Republicans do since they usually only care about the Presidential Elections.
Monday, 23-Sep-19 03:51:26 UTC from web -
...you can, pretty reliably, predict which states would go what direction supposing the election happened today. http://rainbowdash.net/url/875208
Monday, 23-Sep-19 03:48:39 UTC from web -
If we wanna talk poll accuracy, I find that FiveThirtyEight's generic congressional ballot works pretty damn well on a national scale. 4 of the last 5 Presidential elections had their national popular votes fall within two points of the final generic ballot margin - including 2016. Now, if we apply that to state calculated partisanship, using either the Cook PVI (more friendly to Democrats, as they only take the 2012 and 2016 Presidential elections - two very neutral but still otherwise slightly Democratic leaning years - into account), or the 538 PVI (more friendly to Republicans, as it also accounts for more local elections between 2012 and 2016, including the Republican wave year of 2014) as our baseline... http://rainbowdash.net/url/875207
Monday, 23-Sep-19 03:45:30 UTC from web -
But that's not even the point I was making. As a more conservative Democrat, Biden is objectively more likely to win over Republican-leaning voters than somebody like Elizabeth Warren.
Monday, 23-Sep-19 03:38:54 UTC from web
