135890459020589's home timeline
Notices
-
What people don't get about polls, and what they especially seemed to not get after Trump was elected, is that capturing 51% in a poll is just that - a 51% chance that you win. Clinton's lead in key states was always narrow and the fact that she underperformed some of them (and the fact that she overperformed a lot of others, like in Texas, Georgia, and Arizona, which were a lot closer than most pollsters predicted they would be) doesn't make the poll "wrong". It just means the less-likely thing happened, and as it turns out, unlikely things happen pretty frequently. Statistics!
That's why you don't want to have a two-point lead in a statewide poll, as Clinton did in several, and as Trump currently has in some SUPER red states. You want to have a ten-point lead, as Biden does in several - and even that doesn't create a guaranteed win, it just creates a more likely win.Monday, 23-Sep-19 03:38:24 UTC from web-
@scribus When I vote the booth has no curtain but the free standing booth is orientated in such a way that no one can look. It's literally 3 walls with an integrated table and foldable for easy storage and deployment. Also the amount of people in the voting room is limited to the amount of booths (usually two or three max) and there are voting helpers to ensure there is no cheating.
Jonathan Chouinard likes this. -
@scribus Of course there is supposed to be. How else do you think something like this can happen ? http://rainbowdash.net/url/875213 ( picture says it all, really )
Jonathan Chouinard likes this. -
@drinkingpony Oh lordy! XD
-
-
I’m torn between “I really don’t think Biden should be President” and “But Biden probably has a lot of Republican support, and therefore could siphon enough votes that would otherwise be Trump votes in the swing states”
Sunday, 22-Sep-19 00:29:49 UTC from web-
@mrmattimation the "non sequitur"-level seems high I am not sure whether to call it a day or to point out that I have NO idea how actual vote totals (from when? 2016? from whom? MSM ?) can be used to establish anything on the level as big as a whole state.
But hey, if you are willing to still believe that so called 'professionals' are better at predicting at what whole states will probably end up voting when there is also Matt Groening, I am not gonna stop you.
As for that Trump did worse than Romney and McCain in some area's. Yeah I am willing to believe that, there are things like home states, there are things like actively or passively pandering to special/specific intrest groups.
Lets not forget the Bernie Bro's ( name ? ) which voted for trump in 2016.
Oh, or the people from the Rust Belt who vowed to vote democrat in the local elections but Trump for 2020 http://rainbowdash.net/url/875206
Because aparently that's a thingJonathan Chouinard likes this. -
@drinkingpony According to exit polls from 2016, more than three quarters of Bernie Sanders primary voters voted for Clinton in the general (the remaining 25% is split three ways: people who voted Trump, people who voted for a third party candidate, or people who didn't vote at all). Official vote tabulations, as certified by each state's government (Republicans had already controlled quite a few of these on Election Day 2016 - this is no longer true for most of them as of January 2019), showed that while Trump did much better than Romney and McCain in states like Ohio and Iowa, he also did worse than them in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan... all of which were won by him and not Clinton. He didn't get normally Democratic votes in those states. The Democrat just got less than is normal. These are two different situations, and although they eventually lead to the same outcome, it's important to make the distinction because it reveals a lot about the climate of 2016.
-
@mrmattimation You still believe in polls ? More importantly you think 8.3 % of Bernie Bro's did not vote ? Yeah I call bull on that. Unless if you want to proclaim that you can expect 30% margin of error out of every and all polls coming out of "the establishment" on a good day ( not even gonna touch the bad days )
But hey, I will just leave you with this http://rainbowdash.net/url/875210
and this
http://rainbowdash.net/url/875211
Jonathan Chouinard likes this.
-
-
Against pretty much anyone besides Trump, it'd be very easy to see a scenario in which Biden loses the popular vote but wins the electoral vote, if he closed margins in safe blue states while also barely winning ordinarily red states.
Sunday, 22-Sep-19 17:11:00 UTC from web-
@mrmattimation Wait, you mean like the 1976 election between Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford ? You KNOW why Texas was blue, right ?
Jonathan Chouinard likes this.
-
-
I'm sure this isn't a tremendously hot take, but Joe Biden's upper bound of support in terms of pure popularity is probably lower than Obama's, but SIMULTANEOUSLY better than Obama in terms of the state-by-state breakdown. He could probably capture a lower percentage of the popular vote than Obama did, but a higher percentage of the electoral vote because of his popularity in normally Republican states.
Sunday, 22-Sep-19 17:09:29 UTC from web -
And then there’s this third voice that’s like “if Biden wins he’ll just die in office two years in anyway so like, go for it, Potato Knishes it”
Sunday, 22-Sep-19 00:39:24 UTC from web -
I want the next President to be a good President in his own right and not just good-looking next to Trump, but I also would like to just be rid of Trump, preferably in a much shorter time than it took to get rid of Bush.
Sunday, 22-Sep-19 00:32:47 UTC from web -
Another Kennedy. Greaaaaat.
Saturday, 21-Sep-19 14:04:26 UTC from web -
God, is it 2009 all over again? Why is Nancy Pelosi the radio scapegoat again?
Friday, 20-Sep-19 19:57:19 UTC from web-
@drinkingpony I... I just said what happened.
-
@mrmattimation No you didn't. You just said "Oh hey something that happened in 2009 is now again happening in 2019, that involves using Nanci Peloci as a skapegoat of one form or another" Just what am I supposed to do with that ? What is ANYONE supposed to do with that ?
Also are we just going to ignore 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014... Heck I am sure that I can find SOMETHING to complete the 6 in a row in the very least. I mean, I just need to find something regarding her being blamed for something by someone else right ? Question now is who is saying anything. Would you believe everything that John Boehner or Kevin McCarthy say ? Heck, lets disqualify those people from the 'game'. Now it is suddenly a lot harder to even get 4 in a row.Jonathan Chouinard likes this. -
@drinkingpony Best headline ever was "Boehner Hard on Weiner" (which maybe was just a gag?) from the Anthony Weiner sexting scandal.
-
-
Friday, 20-Sep-19 06:54:03 UTC from web-
@mrmattimation STAY OUT OF MY DIARY!!
-
