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And the 2016 polls weren’t “wrong” either, as I just explained. All results fell within the margin of error except MAYBE Iowa. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, the results were not as expected by the general public but if you paid attention to the actual polls you could have easily expected the outcome we got. Trump isn’t some magic fifth-dimensional wizard who defies all political science and the suggest otherwise would be making the exact same mistake Clinton made in 2016.
Monday, 23-Sep-19 17:05:31 UTC from web -
(And in the 2017 off-year elections)
Monday, 23-Sep-19 17:02:00 UTC from web -
For what this is worth to somebody who only accepts numbers that confirm his biases, polling was pretty much dead-on in 2018.
Monday, 23-Sep-19 17:01:22 UTC from web-
@mrmattimation Wait, so we agree on something ?
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Don’t explain statistics to a Potato Knishesing moron, everyone, he’ll just ignore it.
Monday, 23-Sep-19 16:59:27 UTC from web -
really i just want Trump gone so that I don't feel tempted to ruin Swole Foods by doing a Trump show that everyone hates because it says mean things about the meme president.
Monday, 23-Sep-19 04:25:06 UTC from web -
i also don't wear very thick glasses anymore, those are sitting in a drawer somewhere, i wear very thick contact lenses
Monday, 23-Sep-19 04:21:18 UTC from web -
And, of course, candidates matter. So once the Democrats have found themselves a nominee, it's possible - likely, even - that all of this data will become completely irrelevant before next November.
Monday, 23-Sep-19 04:13:15 UTC from web -
There are so many other things I could go into on the subject because I'm a kiwiing nerd who wears very thick glasses and looks at numbers all day but like, whatever
Monday, 23-Sep-19 04:08:14 UTC from web -
tl;dr facts don't care about your feelings libtards
Monday, 23-Sep-19 04:02:36 UTC from web -
Unsurprisingly, the map I just posted, which was calculated based on the 538 PVI and the 538 Congressional Generic Ballot, also correlates with Trump's net approval in each of those states. In a vacuum these things mean absolutely nothing, but adding them to a pile and analysing and cross-referencing them tells you a lot. http://rainbowdash.net/url/875209
Monday, 23-Sep-19 04:01:42 UTC from web-
@mrmattimation Yes and there are still 10 people running for democratic presidential candidate, and last time I checked the Republicans are going to run with the current president. Meaning there is one flavour of red and various flavours of blue. Of course one side is going to be a lot more outspoken about thier choice. Same thing happened in, lets see, 2012, 2004, 1996, 1984, for some reason in 1980 that was not a 2nd term runnin prez, 1972, and 1956.
As for those two maps, Well we already know the bias of "270 to win"Jonathan Chouinard likes this.
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That probably doesn't happen today. Elections today are very partisan and correlated and boring and if a Presidential candidate wins in a given state then other people from his party on the same ballot also win statewide - that hasn't quite begun to happen with individual congressional districts though, Clinton won a great deal of congressional districts that ultimately voted for Republican congressmen (though most of those people lost their re-election bids in 2018).
Monday, 23-Sep-19 03:57:08 UTC from web -
In the case of 2008, Obama actually underperformed the incredibly lofty 9 point advantage the generic ballot gave the party, but the party as a whole did incredibly well and won districts and states that Obama himself could not win due to ballot splitting.
Monday, 23-Sep-19 03:54:42 UTC from web -
Pretty much no causation and only correlation, but errors in the generic ballot tend to result in higher swings towards Democrats, rather than the opposite. That's just a trend I've noticed that doesn't actually point to anything greater, except maybe that Democrats respond to congressional polls less often than Republicans do since they usually only care about the Presidential Elections.
Monday, 23-Sep-19 03:51:26 UTC from web -
...you can, pretty reliably, predict which states would go what direction supposing the election happened today. http://rainbowdash.net/url/875208
Monday, 23-Sep-19 03:48:39 UTC from web -
If we wanna talk poll accuracy, I find that FiveThirtyEight's generic congressional ballot works pretty damn well on a national scale. 4 of the last 5 Presidential elections had their national popular votes fall within two points of the final generic ballot margin - including 2016. Now, if we apply that to state calculated partisanship, using either the Cook PVI (more friendly to Democrats, as they only take the 2012 and 2016 Presidential elections - two very neutral but still otherwise slightly Democratic leaning years - into account), or the 538 PVI (more friendly to Republicans, as it also accounts for more local elections between 2012 and 2016, including the Republican wave year of 2014) as our baseline... http://rainbowdash.net/url/875207
Monday, 23-Sep-19 03:45:30 UTC from web -
But that's not even the point I was making. As a more conservative Democrat, Biden is objectively more likely to win over Republican-leaning voters than somebody like Elizabeth Warren.
Monday, 23-Sep-19 03:38:54 UTC from web -
What people don't get about polls, and what they especially seemed to not get after Trump was elected, is that capturing 51% in a poll is just that - a 51% chance that you win. Clinton's lead in key states was always narrow and the fact that she underperformed some of them (and the fact that she overperformed a lot of others, like in Texas, Georgia, and Arizona, which were a lot closer than most pollsters predicted they would be) doesn't make the poll "wrong". It just means the less-likely thing happened, and as it turns out, unlikely things happen pretty frequently. Statistics!
That's why you don't want to have a two-point lead in a statewide poll, as Clinton did in several, and as Trump currently has in some SUPER red states. You want to have a ten-point lead, as Biden does in several - and even that doesn't create a guaranteed win, it just creates a more likely win.Monday, 23-Sep-19 03:38:24 UTC from web-
@scribus When I vote the booth has no curtain but the free standing booth is orientated in such a way that no one can look. It's literally 3 walls with an integrated table and foldable for easy storage and deployment. Also the amount of people in the voting room is limited to the amount of booths (usually two or three max) and there are voting helpers to ensure there is no cheating.
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@scribus Of course there is supposed to be. How else do you think something like this can happen ? http://rainbowdash.net/url/875213 ( picture says it all, really )
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@drinkingpony Oh lordy! XD
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I’m torn between “I really don’t think Biden should be President” and “But Biden probably has a lot of Republican support, and therefore could siphon enough votes that would otherwise be Trump votes in the swing states”
Sunday, 22-Sep-19 00:29:49 UTC from web-
@mrmattimation the "non sequitur"-level seems high I am not sure whether to call it a day or to point out that I have NO idea how actual vote totals (from when? 2016? from whom? MSM ?) can be used to establish anything on the level as big as a whole state.
But hey, if you are willing to still believe that so called 'professionals' are better at predicting at what whole states will probably end up voting when there is also Matt Groening, I am not gonna stop you.
As for that Trump did worse than Romney and McCain in some area's. Yeah I am willing to believe that, there are things like home states, there are things like actively or passively pandering to special/specific intrest groups.
Lets not forget the Bernie Bro's ( name ? ) which voted for trump in 2016.
Oh, or the people from the Rust Belt who vowed to vote democrat in the local elections but Trump for 2020 http://rainbowdash.net/url/875206
Because aparently that's a thingJonathan Chouinard likes this. -
@drinkingpony According to exit polls from 2016, more than three quarters of Bernie Sanders primary voters voted for Clinton in the general (the remaining 25% is split three ways: people who voted Trump, people who voted for a third party candidate, or people who didn't vote at all). Official vote tabulations, as certified by each state's government (Republicans had already controlled quite a few of these on Election Day 2016 - this is no longer true for most of them as of January 2019), showed that while Trump did much better than Romney and McCain in states like Ohio and Iowa, he also did worse than them in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan... all of which were won by him and not Clinton. He didn't get normally Democratic votes in those states. The Democrat just got less than is normal. These are two different situations, and although they eventually lead to the same outcome, it's important to make the distinction because it reveals a lot about the climate of 2016.
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@mrmattimation You still believe in polls ? More importantly you think 8.3 % of Bernie Bro's did not vote ? Yeah I call bull on that. Unless if you want to proclaim that you can expect 30% margin of error out of every and all polls coming out of "the establishment" on a good day ( not even gonna touch the bad days )
But hey, I will just leave you with this http://rainbowdash.net/url/875210
and this
http://rainbowdash.net/url/875211
Jonathan Chouinard likes this.
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Against pretty much anyone besides Trump, it'd be very easy to see a scenario in which Biden loses the popular vote but wins the electoral vote, if he closed margins in safe blue states while also barely winning ordinarily red states.
Sunday, 22-Sep-19 17:11:00 UTC from web-
@mrmattimation Wait, you mean like the 1976 election between Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford ? You KNOW why Texas was blue, right ?
Jonathan Chouinard likes this.
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I'm sure this isn't a tremendously hot take, but Joe Biden's upper bound of support in terms of pure popularity is probably lower than Obama's, but SIMULTANEOUSLY better than Obama in terms of the state-by-state breakdown. He could probably capture a lower percentage of the popular vote than Obama did, but a higher percentage of the electoral vote because of his popularity in normally Republican states.
Sunday, 22-Sep-19 17:09:29 UTC from web -
And then there’s this third voice that’s like “if Biden wins he’ll just die in office two years in anyway so like, go for it, Potato Knishes it”
Sunday, 22-Sep-19 00:39:24 UTC from web -
I want the next President to be a good President in his own right and not just good-looking next to Trump, but I also would like to just be rid of Trump, preferably in a much shorter time than it took to get rid of Bush.
Sunday, 22-Sep-19 00:32:47 UTC from web -
Another Kennedy. Greaaaaat.
Saturday, 21-Sep-19 14:04:26 UTC from web -
God, is it 2009 all over again? Why is Nancy Pelosi the radio scapegoat again?
Friday, 20-Sep-19 19:57:19 UTC from web-
@drinkingpony I... I just said what happened.
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@mrmattimation No you didn't. You just said "Oh hey something that happened in 2009 is now again happening in 2019, that involves using Nanci Peloci as a skapegoat of one form or another" Just what am I supposed to do with that ? What is ANYONE supposed to do with that ?
Also are we just going to ignore 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014... Heck I am sure that I can find SOMETHING to complete the 6 in a row in the very least. I mean, I just need to find something regarding her being blamed for something by someone else right ? Question now is who is saying anything. Would you believe everything that John Boehner or Kevin McCarthy say ? Heck, lets disqualify those people from the 'game'. Now it is suddenly a lot harder to even get 4 in a row.Jonathan Chouinard likes this. -
@drinkingpony Best headline ever was "Boehner Hard on Weiner" (which maybe was just a gag?) from the Anthony Weiner sexting scandal.
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Friday, 20-Sep-19 06:54:03 UTC from web-
@mrmattimation STAY OUT OF MY DIARY!!
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I guess that just means Obama was better at keeping secrets than this loudmouth.
Friday, 20-Sep-19 00:44:09 UTC from web -
Things are FINALLY bad enough in the Spraytan administration that someone is blowing whistles?
Thursday, 19-Sep-19 19:03:32 UTC from web-
@scribus Whistles? I thought these were already a battalion of enormous church pipe organs that attempt to play the longest note.
Jonathan Chouinard likes this. -
@scribus Man, like, Obama got his whistle blown all the time for papaya that was relatively minor compared to what the last two and a half years have been like
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Update, aparently the Steam and the Rockstar Launcher and the Mobile Version of GTA:SA share nearly 95% of all code. Meaning they just wanted a GTA:SA version on mobile with all the fixxins such as dumping the songs they lost the licence to ( mostly Michael Jackson songs and a few others ) and then just tried to dump the same thing on PC with little to no tweaking. I guess some old copy from 2006 with the name SkidMark actually is better then.
Wednesday, 18-Sep-19 22:22:46 UTC from web- Jonathan Chouinard likes this.
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@drinkingpony This is, uh, not accurate at all. The current Steam version is just a patch-updated version of the original 2005 Windows PC port designed by Rockstar North. The iPhone/Windows Store/Xbox 360 version of the game is a different port built in a different graphics engine by War Drum Studios, the song license issue is entirely separate.
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@mrmattimation Seemingly for Steam it is mostly a regional thing, or maybe it is tied to when you bought it. Not sure actually.
Also I take trouble with that song licence thing being a seperate thing. Seeing that the songs that the BG Fix was supposed to 'fix' was a change that needed to be carried forwards to the MG.
However in the BG you can still snoop the files and pick out the MJ songs if you are crafty. the MG simply does not have those songs.Jonathan Chouinard likes this.
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It’s like the Honeymooners, but, like, instead it’s one of the largest geopolitical threats since the end of the Cold War.
Wednesday, 18-Sep-19 18:12:52 UTC from web -
I’ve got this concept in my head for a sitcom about a Pakistani man and an Indian woman who have a very angry sexual relationship.
Wednesday, 18-Sep-19 18:06:53 UTC from web
