Matt (zeldatra)'s status on Monday, 23-Sep-19 03:45:30 UTC

Matt

If we wanna talk poll accuracy, I find that FiveThirtyEight's generic congressional ballot works pretty damn well on a national scale. 4 of the last 5 Presidential elections had their national popular votes fall within two points of the final generic ballot margin - including 2016. Now, if we apply that to state calculated partisanship, using either the Cook PVI (more friendly to Democrats, as they only take the 2012 and 2016 Presidential elections - two very neutral but still otherwise slightly Democratic leaning years - into account), or the 538 PVI (more friendly to Republicans, as it also accounts for more local elections between 2012 and 2016, including the Republican wave year of 2014) as our baseline... http://rainbowdash.net/url/875207