Angry Liberal (mrmattimation)'s status on Monday, 23-Sep-19 03:38:24 UTC

  1. What people don't get about polls, and what they especially seemed to not get after Trump was elected, is that capturing 51% in a poll is just that - a 51% chance that you win. Clinton's lead in key states was always narrow and the fact that she underperformed some of them (and the fact that she overperformed a lot of others, like in Texas, Georgia, and Arizona, which were a lot closer than most pollsters predicted they would be) doesn't make the poll "wrong". It just means the less-likely thing happened, and as it turns out, unlikely things happen pretty frequently. Statistics!

    That's why you don't want to have a two-point lead in a statewide poll, as Clinton did in several, and as Trump currently has in some SUPER red states. You want to have a ten-point lead, as Biden does in several - and even that doesn't create a guaranteed win, it just creates a more likely win.

    about 4 months ago from web in context

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