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  1. What people don't get about polls, and what they especially seemed to not get after Trump was elected, is that capturing 51% in a poll is just that - a 51% chance that you win. Clinton's lead in key states was always narrow and the fact that she underperformed some of them (and the fact that she overperformed a lot of others, like in Texas, Georgia, and Arizona, which were a lot closer than most pollsters predicted they would be) doesn't make the poll "wrong". It just means the less-likely thing happened, and as it turns out, unlikely things happen pretty frequently. Statistics!

    That's why you don't want to have a two-point lead in a statewide poll, as Clinton did in several, and as Trump currently has in some SUPER red states. You want to have a ten-point lead, as Biden does in several - and even that doesn't create a guaranteed win, it just creates a more likely win.

    about 3 months ago from web
    1. @mrmattimation " that capturing 51% in a poll is just that - a 51% chance that you win."

      Oh for the love of. NO ! That is not what a poll is supposed to represent. You do normally take margins of error into account and all that jazz for a non political poll ( which is set to about 5% ). However for a political poll when the levels of polarisation are extremely high ( and you litterally have people talking openly about grabbing the opportunity to making sure that all your employees vote HRC, for voting Trump will have consequences ) polls become less and less accurate since people do not bother to out their political leanings untill the little drape/curtains close behind them in the voting booth.

      Saying otherwise makes a mockery out of the art of poll-making from 1952-2012, probably earlier but I did not look into that.

      I mean, after all, if RHC was as smart as you then she would have made a concession-speech. Instead she threatened to do what she said Trump would do. Call 'FOUL'.

      about 3 months ago from web
      1. @drinkingpony ...voting booths are supposed to have curtains!?

        about 3 months ago from web
        1. @scribus When I vote the booth has no curtain but the free standing booth is orientated in such a way that no one can look. It's literally 3 walls with an integrated table and foldable for easy storage and deployment. Also the amount of people in the voting room is limited to the amount of booths (usually two or three max) and there are voting helpers to ensure there is no cheating.

          about 3 months ago from web
        2. @scribus Of course there is supposed to be. How else do you think something like this can happen ? http://rainbowdash.net/url/875213 ( picture says it all, really )

          about 3 months ago from web
          1. @drinkingpony Oh lordy! XD

            about 3 months ago from web